Discuss the major elements of crisis that the concepts of incomplete information and credible commitments can help us understand.

Posted: February 25th, 2022

You have been commissioned by the Brazilian Center for Strategic Studies to write an analysis of the current crisis over Ukraine. You were selected because of your deep knowledge of the bargaining model of war (BMW). Your clients would like you to explain how the BMW can help us to understand what is driving the conflict and whether war is a likely outcome. The essay is due at 11:59pm Sunday February 27th via canvas. Please limit your paper to four pages (+/- ½ page). You can use any resources you would like EXCEPT your fellow students. You will NOT need to conductive extensive research to complete this assignment. The textbook, class notes and a couple of articles in the NY Times, Washington Post, the Atlantic or other high-quality news source should be sufficient. You will be evaluated mainly on your ability to explain the BMW and describe how it helps us understand the crisis. To simplify your analysis, limit your discussion of the parties involved to only two actors: Putin/Russia and Biden/USA. You can discuss how other actors, including Ukraine itself, might influence the decision making of Russia or the USA if you would like. Please be sure to define/explain all of the important terms you use. Here are some items you will want to include in your analysis. Briefly describe the core issue of the conflict and what each side claims it would like to achieve. Discuss the major elements of crisis that the concepts of incomplete information and credible commitments can help us understand. Please describe the bargaining strategies that each actor is employing (please limit yourself to describing just one to three major strategies for each). What are the potential gains and costs of each of their respective strategies? From the perspective of the BMW, what do you think is the most likely reason the crisis might escalate to violence or war? Here are some examples of news stories that may prove helpful. You DO NOT need to use these particular pieces to support your argument. You can use whatever resources you would like. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/07/russia-ukraine-biden-putin-call/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/17/russian-troops-menace-ukraine-putin-opens-second-front-against-his-domestic-opponents/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/16/why-putin-wont-give-up-on-ukraine-invasion-or-no-invasion/ https://www.nytimes.com/article/ukraine-russia-putin.html?searchResultPosition=1 (Connexions vers un site externe.) https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/18/us/politics/putin-ukraine.html?searchResultPosition=18

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